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With respect to books that provide insight into the unchanging truths of technical analysis, older is often better. Indeed, the 1930s are often referred to as the “Golden Age of Technical Analysis”. Many of the immutable principles that laid the groundwork for later works of note, such as the venerable Technical Analysis of Stock Trends by Edwards and Magee, were set forth in the works of that period. Gartley, Schabacker, Tubbs, Cole, Dunnigan and other giants in the development of technical analysis produced classics during this period that have stood the test of time and are still regarded by knowledgeable technicians as valuable contributions.
During the early days of my own career as a futures trader, one of the outstanding works that had a significant influence on me and greatly added to the development of my knowledge as a trader was L. Dee Belveal’s Charting Commodity Market Price Behavior. Originally written in the late 1960s and privately published by the author, Belveal revised, expanded and updated this work in the mid-1980s.
The subsequent publisher of the revised edition chose to discontinue publication of this work, which has come to be regarded as a classic by knowledgeable readers. Traders Press made private arrangements with Mr. Belveal to reprint his venerable classic and make it available once again to traders.
Readers of Belveal’s book have the opportunity to learn from a seasoned speculator of many years' experience, a former member of the Chicago Board of Trade and the developer of the CBOT’s training manual, which has been used for many years to train new futures brokers (including the writer of this review some 35 years ago!). His astute observations on market behavior and how to use the clues left by market action to forecast future price trends are a valuable legacy for new futures traders. In my opinion, this book should be in the library of every futures trader.
Contrary to what one might assume from the title, the primary emphasis of this book is NOT classic chart patterns. In fact, they are relegated a minor, almost nonexistent role, and only given passing mention. The primary theme is the interpretation of price action coupled with an in-depth understanding of volume and open interest, how these three elements interact, and how they may be used to effectively assess technical market condition. This is the most comprehensive treatment of the interpretation of open interest and volume of which I am aware.
It is interesting that Belveal views all three elements in a dual role. With respect to volume, he views it both as a measurement of the enthusiasm or urgency the trade feels to do something at a given price level, as well as a measurement of the urgency with which those who are in trouble view their situation. He sees open interest as a quantitative indication of the level of participation in a contract by all market participants, as well as a provider of clues to what losers are doing about their problem.
Belveal places great emphasis also on the analysis of all market participants and on the understanding of what “strong hands” and “weak hands” are currently doing in the market. His discussion and explanation of the monthly USDA "Commitments of Traders Reports" is the most comprehensive treatment of this subject of which I am aware. He also discusses spread differentials used in conjunction with related markets, premiums and discounts, commercial hedging and technical factors, such as 50% retracements and key reversals, and how each may be effectively used in evaluating the technical condition of a market.
One of Belveal’s basic tenets is that a primary price-making influence is “trouble” and that an accurate assessment of which side of the market is in trouble provides valuable clues as to how to time and trade a given market. Considerable attention is also paid to the psychology of market participants, another important component of Belveal’s market analysis.
Belveal’s analytical approach is marked by simplicity. Indeed, he summarizes his philosophy by saying, “The expert market technician tries to keep his approach as simple as possible. He attempts to deal only with those things that are measurable and predictable. Price, volume and open interest are all measurable, and traders are predictable. You need nothing else to succeed in speculation.”
I highly recommend Charting Commodity Market Price Behavior to all futures traders who use the technical approach in trade selection and timing.
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