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The
stock market is a mirror of society that reflects the
economic, emotional and psychological impulses of the
entire world. Many traders and investors find it difficult
to succeed in the market because they are paralyzed, misled
or confused about how to interpret this overwhelming amount
of information. A trader's ability to understand the language
of the market and then promptly execute a position is
ultimately going to determine his/her success. Whether
you use technical or fundamental analysis, it is very
important to have a clear method for breaking down this
code into usable information.
During the last 23 years of trading stocks, bonds, options
and the S&P 500 futures market, I have developed a
methodology through much trial and error that allows me
to answer the most important question: Long, short or
out of the market? As a 23-year veteran, I have tried
almost every mechanical system, charting program and complex
philosophy in search of a method that would allow me to
trade the market consistently. I finally found my niche
as a methodical trader using a common sense approach that
consists of time of day, key numbers and
a proprietary software program known as the RoadMap.
Time of Day
Because I trade the S&P 500 futures (a market that
trades around the clock from Sunday at 5:30 p.m. until
Friday at 3:15 p.m. Central Time), I knew that the first
piece of my approach should be based on a common sense
schedule for approaching the market. I knew that I had
to sleep, eat and maintain somewhat of a normal existence.
Therefore, I divided the market into time segments, so
I could trade the highest probability times and "live"
during the rest of the time.
My trading day begins between 3:30 4:00 a.m. Central
Time as I examine the Far East (Hang Seng and Nikkei)
and European markets (SWI, DAX, CAC and FTSE). I am looking
for a trend common to these markets and the S&P 500
futures. Approximately 5 or 6 times a month, I can capitalize
on trading the S&P at this time while much of the
rest of America sleeps.
I also have a pre-determined schedule that I use to approach
the day's market. I put my primary focus on the market
3 times a day: 9:00 10:15 a.m, 12:30 1:15
p.m. Central Time, and then again in the afternoon. Because
traders get paid for the quality rather than the quantity
of time they spend in front of a computer, it is important
for them not to waste an entire day staring at the numbers.
It is not only an inefficient use of time but also a great
way to get bogged down by the monotony of the numbers.
Key Numbers
After forming a schedule that allowed me to clearly focus
on the market, I knew that I had to devise a plan for
clearly interpreting the numbers. A trader can easily
get caught up in the minutia, so I formulated a straightforward
formula for determining key numbers. Key numbers are support
(the point at which buyers are stepping in) and resistance
(the point at which sellers are stepping in) in the market.
Many complex techniques determine key numbers, but one
of the best sources is the market itself.
I gather key numbers each morning prior to the market's
open and compile them in my Educational Update email message
that I send to all of my students. These key numbers come
from historical observation, common focal points in the
market, the previous day's trading range and the RoadMap.
For example, the previous day's 12:30 # is almost always
my pivot number for the current trading day. Other key
numbers of importance are the previous day's high/low,
Globex high/low and the 3:30 a.m. #. It is critical to
go into each day knowing the key numbers that are going
to play a role in the market. Preparation allows me to
make decisions at the drop of a dime and reduce the psychological
stress that goes into entering or exiting a position.
The Trader's Roadmap
We have addressed the need for a daily schedule and a
method for determining key numbers. Now let's talk about
a strategy for interpreting market indicators. Both prior
to entry and during a trade, it is important to keep track
of certain indicators so that you can follow the direction
of the market. That is why I developed a method for following
approximately 8 key market indicators that directly influence
the movement of the S&P.
This proprietary software (called RoadMap) is like the
old-time tape readers. It is compatible with eSignal datafeeds
and takes a snapshot of the market every 30 minutes. It
allows me to evaluate the trend quickly and determine
whether or not I need to take action. (By "take action,"
I mean exit a position or tighten my stop.) These indicators
point to increased buying or selling in the market. Without
the tracking of certain indicators, a trader will decrease
his/her odds of being right.
Going into each day with a sound schedule, key numbers
and a trader's roadmap helps me to understand the language
of the markets. A well-thought-out game plan minimizes
the emotional and psychological strain that causes many
traders to lose focus. My RoadMap methodology allows me
to determine the most important question that plagues
all traders: Long, short or out of the market?
Thomas
L. Busby, President of DayTrading Institute (DTI) (www.dtitrader.com),
has been a professional trader and broker for more than
23 years. Tom opened DTI in 1996 to educate, train and
offer continuous support to individuals interested in
learning to trade the financial markets, specifically
the S&P 500 Futures market.
Tom's
unique RoadMap methodology, made up of time of day, key
numbers and the RoadMap software, allows traders to consistenly
answer the question that plagues all traders: long, short
or out of the market. His articles have been published
in Bridge Trader, Active Trader, Futures
magazine and other popular trading journals.
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