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It's
a sign of conflicted times: A headline saying that Merrill
Lynch upgraded Microsoft right above another about the
Wall Street broker's smelly disclosure scandal.
"A story on 'techs shaking off an overnight slide,'
with the immediate catalyst being an upgrade by Merrill
Lynch, right above a story on Merrill (MER) perhaps settling
with Spitzer on its nasty habit, along with everyone else,
of lying about tech stocks," noted one CBS.MarketWatch.com
reader Friday morning. "That's what I call a true
sense of ironic juxtaposition."

New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer showed
impeccable timing, a lot like a consummate trading pro,
when he decided to go after Wall Street earlier this month
for brokers' double-dealing recommendations of technology
stocks during the Internet boom.
Yet, many individuals in this country are still loath
to make an investment choice without referring first to
Wall Street upgrades and downgrades. I'm in my seventh
year here at CBS MarketWatch, and our upgrades and downgrades
coverage and guide to Wall Street jargon are more popular
than ever. (See CBS MarketWatch for the latest actions,
initiations and Susan Lerner's "The Ratings Game.")
Of course, we haven't included some of the foul acronyms
used by Merrill Lynch analysts in their back-slapping,
back-stabbing memos to one another. But what's a Piece
of Stuff between friends, anyway? Fact is, most individuals
are still hooked on Wall Street research, or the idea
of it, anyway.
Wall Street's pronouncements of "cheap," "fairly
valued" and "overvalued" are required reading,
it seems. Even as disclosure scandals rock some of the
major investment houses. That's because most of us, before
we pull the "buy" or "sell" trigger
on our Charles Schwab console, want some fat-cat assurance
that what we are doing is sane.
In the clubby world of company research, the only alternatives
for most ordinary folks on a strict budget are no-strings-attached,
independent investment newsletters. The stock market newsletters
are a crowded field but one with proven winners and losers.
Newsletters are within the reach of most of us: $100 to
$1,000 a year.
Independents start to kick tires
Other forms of independent research, applied by seasoned
researchers using cash-flow, customer surveys and good,
old-fashioned tire-kicking, are getting attention these
days from hedge funds, trading desks and wealthy folks.
One of them, from Applied Finance Group Ltd., a Chicago
research firm, is ranking the quality of corporate earnings
based on cash flows.
"We can start to evaluate the quality of a firm's
earnings by tracking how much income is coming from cash
versus how much is booked as an accrual," says the
group's research director, Rafe Resendes. Applied Finance
hopes its research points to channel-stuffing by companies
that are stuck with growing receivables. More research
from the firm will be available later this spring.
Another company, ChangeWave Investment Research in Maryland,
uses surveys of 3,500 executives and technology customers
as its ammunition in the war against Wall Street hype.
Michael Shulman, managing director of research, says he
sent clients a negative report on Sun Microsystems at
the start of the year.
"In our online surveys, people were abandoning Sun
(SUNW) for low-end applications. It was overwhelming,"
he said Friday. Shulman and his team also released a report
on Microsoft last week. In it, a quarter of 502 people
who responded to a detailed questionnaire said they were
slowing down upgrade purchases of software product Microsoft
Office (MSFT). Another 25 percent said they were slowing
down purchases of OS products from Microsoft. Shulman
says his firm's research sells mostly to hedge funds and
wealthy investors for $5,000 to $50,000 a year.
Back on Wall Street, where most research is based solely
on comments company executives make to lightly trained
analysts, it's often garbage in, garbage out. Charles
Biderman at independent researcher TrimTabs often points
out that the research arms of big brokers make no direct
profit from research reports. Yet, in the funny way Wall
Street works, those reports are integral to everything
an investment bank does, from generating sales of stock
in glass-tower boiler rooms to whipping up corporate business,
such as underwriting of securities.
Brokers and their P.T. Barnum researchers have to earn
a living, after all. But on Main Street, where independent
newsletters are thriving right now, a POS is still a POS.
Thom
Calandra's Stockwatch column is available at cbs.marketwatch.com
and ftmarketwatch.com.
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