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At an investment conference in Las Vegas, I had the opportunity
to introduce John Murphy, who wrote several books on technical
analysis. He is often seen on TV commenting about the
markets. John's message to the group of active traders
was very simple. He showed the group two charts. One showed
a stock trending higher. His message: Up is good. Then
he showed a second chart, one of a stock trending lower.
His message: Down is bad.

Obviously, John was taking the perspective of a bull.
However, what he was pointing out was that investors should
never forget the basics. He made his statement and illustrated
its need by citing comments from some money managers on
television who said they liked certain stocks because
they were going down.
Many years ago, when I was working with William O'Neil,
publisher of Investor's Business Daily. He would
often point out the same basic idea when looking for good
stocks. First, you want the stock's price to be in an
up trend. Second, buy if it moves out from a base. The
idea is that the up trend would appear to be resuming.
Subscribers to eSignal have at their finger tips new
advanced charting capabilities. There is everything from
bar charts to line charts to candlestick charts. There
are even charts I have not heard of, such as Kagi and
Renko. Many studies are available. They range from price
momentum measures, such as the ADX rating system
which I use to volume analysis via money flow and
accumulation-distribution. Then, there are various Fibonacci
and Gann indicators too. And, most impressively, there
is a section to develop your own formulas.
These charts pack a lot of power. However, it can get
confusing if one is not familiar with some of the indicators
and their nuances. So, it would be a good idea for you
to test an indicator and see how it works in helping you
with your trading. I have back tested many indicators.
I've bent them, twisted them and done everything I could
to see if they would work well. In general, there are
several basic things one should look for when studying
a bar chart of a stock. They are:
1. The trend
2. Basing areas
3. Support and resistance points
4. Price and volume patterns
In mid-June of this year, the stock market was in a pronounced
down trend. However, bucking the trend and showing unusual
strength were the educational stocks. One of them was
Corinthian Colleges Inc. (COC). A look at Corinthian's
chart showed it in an up trend, fulfilling John Murphy's
criterion for a good stock (for bulls). Corinthian had
rallied during the first six months of the year, from
$19 to almost $30, a gain of 50 percent. It was in an
up trend.

The stock formed a based (moved sideways) in January
between $19 and $21.20. It then pushed out of its base
(broke out) and advanced to $24.80 by early March. Eventually,
it reached a peak of $29.69 in late April. From that point,
it formed a new base that lasted almost two months. The
range of the base was between $26 and $29.50. The price
area of $26 is called support because, every time Corinthian
dropped back, it held in that area. Conversely, when the
stock rallied, it ran into a wall (resistance) around
$29.50.
Then, on June 21, 2002, it broke through the resistance
with a move to $31 on a big expansion in volume. The eSignal
chart depicted the breakout nicely with the colors on
the chart displaying the price as green and volume as
green. The eSignal charts show down days as red, both
on price and volume. The color schemes can be adjusted.
The trigger for Corinthian's breakout was the company's
disclosure that online enrollment for students on the
Internet for the fiscal year ending June 30 jumped 114
percent to 15,000 from 7,025 a year ago.
Corinthian, based near Los Angeles, operates 51 for-profit
colleges. There are 16 in California and 9 in Florida.
Some 20,000 students attend its schools. It has two facilities
in San Jose, CA. Corinthian's annual revenues are running
at $250 million. Net for the fiscal year ending June 30
should be up 40 percent and for fiscal 2003 approximately
25 percent. So, with the stock in an up trend and earnings
strong, there are good prospects for the stock to move
higher.
So, going to school on the stock market by using charts
is a good way for eSignal subscribers to improve their
investment grade. It can improve market timing for buying
and selling.
Mr.
Fasciocco’s articles appear on www.tickertapedigest.com.
He
is an independent contributing writer for several national
publications. He is also president of Corona Investment
Management. To
get a free trial subscription to the Ticker Tape
Digest Pro Report, which comes out daily on the web
with midday updates, send an email message to freetrial@tickertapedigest.com.
Mr. Fasciocco can be reached by email at leo@tickertapedigest.com.
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